Forecasting Annual Rainfalls

Forecasting & Futurism 4 th Annual Contest Submission

Joint probability distribution of annual maximum storm peaks and amounts as represented by daily rainfalls

Abstract A procedure is presented for using the bivariate normal distribution to describe the joint distribution of storm peaks (maximum rainfall intensities) and amounts which are mutually correlated. The Box-Cox transformation method is used to normalize original marginal distributions of storm peaks and amounts regardless of the original forms of these distributions. The transformation param...

Forecasting Financial Market Annual Performance Measures: Further Evidence

Problem statement: Forecasting is simple; producing accurate forecasts is the essential task. Experience suggests that financial managers often assume that because models used in forecasting are appropriate that they are effective. This study addresses this assumption. Effective is taken to mean forecasts where the Absolute Percentage Error (APE) is equal to or less than 10%. It has been report...

Technology Forecasting Using Data Mining and Semantics: First Annual Report

The planning and management of research and development is a challenging process which is compounded by the large amounts of information which is available. Research managers and other decision makers often rely on intuition and domain knowledge to arrive at management decisions. The overall long­term goal of this project is to mine science and technology databases for patterns and trends which...

Exploring the Forecasting Potential of Company Annual Reports

Previous research indicates that the narration disclosure in company annual reports can be used to assist in assessing the company's short-term financial prospects. However, not much effort has been made to systematically and automatically assess the predictive potential of such reports using text classification, information retrieval, and machine learning techniques. In this study, we built SV...